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The Art of Early Warning

If you see the crisis before others do, you have two jobs: understand it - and translate it. The goal isn’t to be dramatic. It’s to be clear, calm, and early enough to give people a chance to act.

An androgynous figure stands with their back to the viewer, holding a sign that reads “EARLY WARNING!” in one hand and pointing desperately at a meteor blazing across the sky with the other. Their body language is urgent and exasperated. Behind them, a crowd of people walks through a colorful city street, oblivious to the danger above.

This is the before. The moment when you see it coming and still have a chance to steer.

You Weren’t Wrong - You Were Early

You see the problem before it breaks.
You raise the flag - calmly, rationally.
And they nod, smile, and go back to sprint planning.

Until it’s too late.

You weren’t wrong.
You were just too early for them to feel it.

So how do you speak up - without getting dismissed, burned out, or gaslit?

Let’s break it down.

Why Early Warnings Fail

Most people act based on felt urgency - not real timing.
They respond to emotional proximity, not structural proximity.
They need visible impact, not just logical consequence.

That’s why a quiet crisis doesn’t look like a crisis. Yet.

Translate the Crisis - Don’t Just Name It

Your job isn’t to be loud. Your job is to be legible.

When you see something coming, try to…

Make it feel closer. Make it feel bigger. Make it feel theirs.

Here are some approaches:

When to Use	Strategy	What to Do
The timing feels distant	Temporal Compression	“The fire’s not here yet, however the window to act is shrinking.”
It feels like someone else’s problem	Proximity Framing	“This lands on us first, even if it looks external.”
People need to feel the stakes	Impact Translation	“If this breaks, we’re talking $50k/month and a 3-month rebuild.”
Logic isn’t landing	Narrative Framing	“Let’s imagine the story we’re telling six months from now.”
Calm pacing and early planning	Backlog Insertion	“Let’s timebox this now so we’re not rushing later.”

More techniques can also be found in The Value of the Crisis That Never Happened.

If They Won’t Act - Should You?

You warned them. You documented it. You flagged it for the roadmap.

But no movement. No momentum.

Now what?

You don’t have to be the hero.
But you can be the Second Son - ready, prepared, and unshaken when the trap gets triggered.

Sometimes that means:

Creating a draft fallback plan
Scoping a future fix just enough to get ready
Watching for the inflection point - and moving fast when it hits

You’re not obsessing. You’re not catastrophizing.

You’re preserving options before they disappear.

How to Protect Your Sanity

You can’t save people who won’t listen.
But you can protect your energy and credibility.

Timestamp your warnings
Attach your rationale to backlog items or slack threads
Use calm language:
- “This may not feel urgent now, but I’d like us to keep eyes on it.”
- “I don’t want credit. I want options.”

You’re not fearmongering. You’re scenario planning.

Closing: You’re Not the Prophet of Doom

You’re not here to scare people.
You’re here to give them the chance to act while the window’s still open.

You’re not a doomsayer.
You’re a system seer.

They might not listen today.

But when the moment comes? You’ll already be ready.

And when it hits? You’ll be the Second Son, not the one still looking for his sword.

Written for the ones who prepare the path - long before others realize there’s danger ahead.

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Published on:

Jun 5, 2025