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The Shape of a Real Crisis

A crisis isn’t just something urgent. It’s not just something big. A true crisis only exists when timing, proximity, and impact all intersect. When even one is missing, it’s not a crisis yet - and how we respond should reflect that.

The Panic Problem

Ever been in a room where someone says, “We’ve got a crisis on our hands” - and you’re not so sure?

Or maybe the opposite:
You know something’s about to blow up, but no one else seems alarmed?

Here’s why:
Most teams don’t actually share a definition of what a crisis is.

And without a shared definition, everything feels like a crisis - or nothing does.
Both are dangerous.

Let’s fix that.

The Crisis Triangle

A true crisis exists when all three of these elements are present:

Timing - It’s happening now, or very soon
Proximity - It’s close enough to affect you, your team, or your customers
Impact - If left unchecked, it will cause real damage

Visualize this as a triangle.
When all three points are connected, you have a full shape. A full crisis.
Take one away - and it collapses.

That’s how you know the difference between:

A real fire vs a false alarm
Something urgent vs something important
What demands action now - and what simply needs a plan

Real or Not: Let’s Test It

Example: Customer data breach

✅ Timing: Now
✅ Proximity: Impacts your users
✅ Impact: High

✅ It's a crisis.

Example: Security vulnerability

✅Timing: Now
❌ Proximity: Your tech stack's not affected
✅Impact: High

❌ Relieving, but not a crisis.

Example: Minor feature bug

✅ Timing: Now
✅ Proximity: Impacts your users
❌ Impact: Low

❌ Unfortunate, but not a crisis.

However, remember to keep an eye on the cumulative damage of low-impact issues.
Collectively, they have the potential to shift a system's trajectory toward crisis.

The Crisis That’s Not Here… Yet

Some crises arrive with flames - but not for awhile.

Example: Platform End of Life

❌ Timing: Eventually
✅ Proximity: High
✅ Impact: High

✅ It's an inevitable crisis.

And if you can see it coming, you have time to act.

Unfortunately, companies often delay addressing these until it's too late to act calmly.

The Insidious Crisis

Some crises don’t arrive with flames.
Sometimes they creep in quietly, then ignite.
And by the time anyone notices? It’s often too late to act calmly.

Example: Tech debt

✅ Timing: Ongoing
✅ Proximity: High
❌ Impact: Slow and compounding

✅ It's an inevitable crisis.

By the time the cumulative damage is recognized, calm action is often impossible.

However, some crises do arrive with flames - but they're small and numerous.
And they're often so common they blend into the background noise.

Example: Broken pricing model

✅ Timing: Ongoing
✅ Proximity: High
❌ Impact: Small, distributed, and compounding

✅ It's an inevitable crisis.

This is the kind of approaching crisis that an Eldest Son sees early.

Why This Model Matters

Most teams over-index on urgency.
Or worse - reward panic.

But urgency alone isn’t the metric.

Without proximity? It's just noise.
Without impact? You have options.
Without timing? You have space.

When we overreact, we burn out.
When we underreact, we get blindsided.
When we define clearly, we lead wisely.

Foreshadowing What Comes Next

Of course, just seeing a crisis coming doesn’t mean others will believe you.

You might be right, but too early.
Clear, but not taken seriously.

That’s when things get tricky…
When do you speak up? How do you warn without sounding like a prophet of doom?

Written for the ones who ask the uncomfortable question before the fire ever starts.

Explore the Full Series

Published on:

Jun 4, 2025